The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland notes that options on federal funds futures can be analyzed to extract public expectations of future Fed actions. The charts posted on the Bank's website show what markets believe the most likely outcome of upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings will be, and as of the beginning of this week, they indicated an over 50% chance of a target rate of 0.00% in April.
Probabilities can be estimated with various assumptions, which are described in detail on the site. The assumptions used to construct each day's charts are indicated immediately below the pictures.
See the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland's market probability estimates here.
The FOMC completes its two-day monetary policy meeting Wednesday.
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