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Kamis, 08 September 2011

The Good News and the Bad News from Fed Chairman Bernanke [NEWSLETTER]

Conversation Starter


**Editor's Note: Christine Nielsen is in Interlaken, Switzerland, attending the Swiss Futures & Options Conference this week. Today's JLN Interest Rates newsletter was edited by Jim Kharouf, Sarah Rudolph and Nicole V. Rohr.


Bernanke: Fed Will Weigh Stimulus at Next Meeting
By Jeannine Aversa and Joshua Zumbrun, Bloomberg
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said policy makers will discuss the tools they could use to boost the recovery at their next meeting this month and stand ready to use them if necessary.
http://jlne.ws/oHF1ai

The good news from Chairman Bernanke's speech:


  • In the financial sphere, our banking system and financial markets are significantly stronger and more stable. 
  • Credit availability has improved for many borrowers, though it remains tight in categories -- such as small business lending -- in which the balance sheets and income prospects of potential borrowers remain impaired.
  • Structural reform is moving forward in the financial sector, with ambitious domestic and international efforts under way to enhance financial regulation and supervision, especially for the largest and systemically most important financial institutions.
  • The business sector generally presents a more upbeat picture. Manufacturing production has risen nearly 15 percent since its trough, driven importantly by growth in exports.
  • U.S. trade deficit has narrowed substantially relative to where it was before the crisis, reflecting in part the improved competitiveness of U.S. goods and services.
  • Business investment in equipment and software has also continued to expand. 

And the bad

  • Recovery from the crisis has been much less robust than we had hoped.
  • The recession was even deeper and the recovery weaker than we had previously thought.
  • Aggregate output in the United States still has not returned to the level that it had attained before the crisis.
  • Economic growth over the past two years has, for the most part, been at rates insufficient to achieve sustained reductions in the unemployment rate, which has recently been fluctuating a bit above 9 percent.
  • Gross domestic product (GDP) estimated to have increased at an annual rate of less than 1 percent, on average, in the first and second quarters.
  • One striking aspect of the recovery is the unusual weakness in household spending.
  • But households are struggling with other important headwinds as well, including the persistently high level of unemployment, slow gains in wages for those who remain employed, falling house prices, and debt burdens that remain high for many, notwithstanding that households, in the aggregate, have been saving more and borrowing less.
  • Readings on consumer confidence have fallen substantially in recent months as people have become more pessimistic about both economic conditions and their own financial prospects.
  • The housing sector has been a significant driver of recovery from most recessions in the United States since World War II, but this time -- with an overhang of distressed and foreclosed properties, tight credit conditions for builders and potential homebuyers, and ongoing concerns by both potential borrowers and lenders about continued house price declines -- the rate of new home construction has remained at less than one-third of its pre-crisis peak.

And the future


  • State and local governments continue to tighten their belts by cutting spending and reducing payrolls in the face of ongoing budgetary pressures, and federal fiscal stimulus is being withdrawn.
  • The absence of adequate demand from the private sector -- a substantial fiscal consolidation in the shorter term could add to the headwinds facing economic growth and hiring.
  • Without significant policy changes to address the increasing fiscal burdens that will be associated with the aging of the population and the ongoing rise in health-care costs, the finances of the federal government will spiral out of control in coming decades, risking severe economic and financial damage. 
  • Importantly, we see little indication that the higher rate of inflation experienced so far this year has become ingrained in the economy. 


Well, I wouldn't call that exactly uplifting and inspirational. Onward we go...

Jim Kharouf

Crisis Recovery Is ‘Much Less Robust’ Than Hoped, Bernanke Says
Full Text of Bernanke's remarks to the Economic Club of Minnesota in Minneapolis
Bloomberg
http://jlne.ws/pj8yIo


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Lead Stories



Geithner calls for 'more forceful action' from Europe 
AFP
US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner called Thursday for Europe to take stronger action to generate confidence that it can resolve its spreading debt and deficits problems.
"Europe needs to take more forceful action to generate confidence that it can and will resolve its crisis," Geithner said one day ahead of the G-7 meeting of finance ministers and central bankers in Marseille." 
**JK - And what about the US?

Roubini: Slowdown Brings Forward New Crisis 
Bloomberg
Nouriel Roubini, co-founder and chairman of Roubini Global Economics LLC, said the current slowdown in the world economy has brought forward the timing of a new financial crisis.
**JK - Roubini, always the optimist.

CFTC may grant more relief from swaps regulations 
Reuters
The U.S. futures regulator looks set to grant the massive swaps market more relief from complying with new financial reforms until sometime in 2012 as the agency remains well behind in completing many of the largest and most contested rules.

MORTGAGE HIT RECORD LOWS STORIES

Mortgage rates hit record lows in Freddie Mac survey
latimes.com
Mortgage rates have plunged to all-time lows amid concerns the economy is stalling again, Freddie Mac said in its weekly survey.
Lenders were offering the 30-year fixed-rate home loan at an average rate of 4.12% this week, down from 4.22% last week, Freddie Mac said Thursday. The 15-year fixed loan was at 3.33%, down from 3.39%.

Obama's Reported Mortgage Refinancing 'Stimulus' Won't Help 
Daniel Indiviglio - The Atlantic 
Some reports indicate that he'll announce one stimulus measure that purports to cost taxpayers nothing. The administration may push Fannie and Freddie to allow more homeowners to refinance at current very low mortgage interest rates. The measure might sound good in theory but will ultimately amount to another failed attempt at healing the housing market and broader economy.

CBO casts doubt on mortgage refinancing plan 
FT.com 
But investors in mortgage-backed securities guaranteed by the US would lose about $13bn to $15bn from prepayments on securities yielding above-market rates, the economists say. The programme’s impact on economic output and the housing market would be small, they say. It would also have just a “minor” impact on future home prices.
Analysis: Mortgage cases target people, not just banksBy Jonathan Stempel
(Reuters) -- By suing 131 individuals in its effort to recover losses on $200 billion of mortgage debt that went sour, the federal agency overseeing mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie mac is doing one thing that the U.S. government has largely left alone. It is trying to hold actual people, not just companies, responsible for their roles in the global financial crisis.
http://jlne.ws/oDY8y3

Six Steps That Could Boost Refinancing 
By Nick Timiraos, WSJ.com
The Obama administration and the Federal Reserve are looking for ways to help more homeowners refinance.
Mortgage rates have dropped—again—to their lowest levels in the last 50 years. A Freddie Mac survey showed that 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 4.12% this week, down from 4.22% last week.
http://jlne.ws/mVyQCA

Rates increased at weekly Treasury auction 
The Associated Press
Interest rates on short-term Treasury bills rose slightly in Tuesday's auction but still remained near historic lows.
The Treasury Department auctioned $29 billion in three-month bills at a discount rate of 0.030 percent, up from 0.015 percent last week. Another $27 billion in six-month bills was auctioned at a discount rate of 0.070 percent, up from 0.045 percent last week.

No consensus on fixing housing woes 
Josh Boak - POLITICO.com 
And unless that market snaps back, any new extraordinary stimulus package to create jobs would fail, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan concluded.
“Until we can do that, it’s very hard for me to see how we get the unemployment down to an acceptable level,” Greenspan told a Washington audience last month.

__________________________________


Treasurys Up; 10-Year Yield Near 2%
By CYNTHIA LIN, WSJ.com
NEW YORK—Treasurys bounced around in positive territory Thursday as nervous investors await two key policy speeches to shed light on how policy makers plan to revive the struggling economy. Analysts expected benchmark 10-year yields to teeter around 2% going into this afternoon's highly anticipated policy remarks, with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke up first at 1:30 p.m. ET with his policy speech in Minnesota.
http://jlne.ws/ptN0Wh

Obama to Call for New Spending, Tax Cuts to Create JobsBy CAROL E. LEE, WSJ.com
President Barack Obama will use his speech Thursday night before a joint session of Congress to marshal a sense of urgency behind his jobs agenda and to try to open a new phase in the fight over proposals to fix the economy.
http://jlne.ws/pCwx8h

Obama to unveil crucial jobs planBBC News
President Barack Obama will outline his eagerly awaited jobs plan later in an effort to boost the flagging US economy -- and his re-election hopes.
http://jlne.ws/mRMkEL

Executive-Level Exfoliation at Bank of America 
American Public Media 
Bank of America shook up its executive ranks in what the firm euphemistically calls “de-layering.” This meaningless bit of corporate jargon - de-layering - is wonderfully ridiculous and has been woefully underused in press releases. So I’m coining a better, newer, just as meaningless but more easily grasped term in the headline: executive-level exfoliation.
**JK - I guess it sounds slightly better than "wart removals" or "fungicide."

Bank of America Merrill Lynch Continues to Hire Senior Talent to Support Growth in Prime Brokerage Business 
MarketWatch 
Bank of America Merrill Lynch today announced that Michael Terry will join the company as global head of capital introductions, responsible for leading the expansion of the company's capital introduction efforts. Terry will be based in New York and report to Jon Yalmokas, head of U.S. prime brokerage sales.
http://jlne.ws/p3LVgD
**JK - Hiring, firing. BofA likes it shaken, not stirred. 

World-Wide, Bad News You Can Take to Bank
ROBIN SIDEL, DAN FITZPATRICK and SUZANNE KAPNER - WSJ.com  
A fresh round of bad news is battering banks, threatening to derail their fragile recovery and deal another blow to the unsteady world economy.

MONEY MARKETS-Rate cut by Dec. fully priced after ECB meeting
By Marius Zaharia, Reuters
Euro zone interest rate futures extended gains on Thursday with investors piling up bets for a European Central Bank rate cut by the end of the year after the bank flagged downside risks to growth and tamed its language on inflation.
http://jlne.ws/pvLB0d

UPDATE: Euro Under Pressure As Trichet Sounds Cautious Tone
WSJ.com
By Jessica Mead Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
LONDON -- A more cautious tone from European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet dented the euro Thursday but failed to spark a wholesale selloff of the single currency after he stopped short of hinting at future interest rate cuts.
http://jlne.ws/ndNB2S

US Housing: Record Low Mortgage Rates, Rising Pessimism on Housing
CNBC 
The numbers don't add up.
Mortgage giant Freddie Mac reports the rate on the 30-year fixed hit a new record low of 4.12 percent, at the exact moment that cohort Fannie Mae released its August housing survey showing ever more Americans are pessimistic about the housing market. 27 percent of those surveyed said home prices would drop further and 22 percent expect their financial situations to worsen over the next year. Those are the highest levels for both indicators since August of last year.
http://jlne.ws/nRXY8A

Futures Fall as European Growth Outlook Weakens
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- U.S. stock futures pointed to a lower open Thursday after the European Central Bank lowered it growth forecast for the eurozone and as investors awaited speeches by President Obama and Ben Bernanke.
http://jlne.ws/pThtHY

U.S. Federal Reserve Sept. Beige Book Summary (Text)
Bloomberg
The following is the summary text of the Federal Reserve Board’s Summary of Commentary.
Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts indicated that economic activity continued to expand at a modest pace, though some Districts noted mixed or weakening activity.
http://jlne.ws/pnHsNh

Fed In A Bind As Bond Market Builds Expectations
By Cynthia Lin Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The Federal Reserve is in a Catch-22: investors are rapidly building expectations that the central bank will announce new stimulus measures despite the fact that it may not be ready to introduce anything of the sort.
http://jlne.ws/oT4txV

Europe's Big Central Banks Hold Interest Rates Steady
NYTimes.com
LONDON — The European Central Bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged Thursday, as signs of slowing growth in the euro area raise questions about whether rate hikes earlier this year were premature.
http://jlne.ws/oxRclW

Gold up on ECB Interest Rate Decision, Physical Buying
Gold Matters
Gold rose Thursday, rebounding from a 3 percent plunge the day before as bullion buyers made significant purchases and a decision by Europe's central bank to hold interest rates steady weakened the euro. 
http://jlne.ws/qQty6h

ISDA Reviews Rules For When Default Insurance Should Pay Out 
Dow Jones
The International Swaps and Derivatives Association has begun a process to update rules governing when buyers of swap protection against a debt default should be entitled to compensation, taking into account recent market developments that have renewed criticism of so-called credit-default swaps.

Senate Moves Toward Tackling Debt Ceiling
WSJ.com 
Senate lawmakers could begin a process later Thursday that would trigger a further $500 billion increase in the country's debt ceiling, a senior Democratic leadership aide said.
http://jlne.ws/q25LRe


Events

Valuation and Pricing Methodologies of Debt Instruments - Auction Rate Securities
Sept. 1, 2011
Madison Street Capital (MSC) Is Lead Presenter In This Financial Research Associates Webinar Segment
http://jlne.ws/pxF2sq

FIA Treasury & Rates Forum
Sept. 14, 2011
FIA Program On Growing Role Of Treasury Futures - New York City
http://jlne.ws/fQFQXP

SEFCON II
Oct. 3, 2011
WMBAA To Examine Role And Operation Of Swap Execution Facilities Under Dodd-Frank
http://jlne.ws/pY4N7S

MarketsWiki Questions: Exploring Financial Technology
October 5, 2011, 4:30 p.m. - 6 p.m., IIT Stuart School of Business
http://jlne.ws/oHRGmC


Economic News

Fannie Mae Releases August Consumer Indicators 
Press Release
Americans' pessimism about the economy, home prices, and household finances are deepening, according to findings from Fannie Mae's August National Housing Survey. More than three quarters of Americans (78 percent) say the economy is on the wrong track and only 16 percent think the economy is on the right track (compared to 70 percent wrong track and 23 percent right track in July). Twenty-seven percent of Americans believe home prices will go down and 22 percent of Americans polled expect their financial situation to worsen over the next year - the highest levels of pessimism for both indicators since August 2010. http://jlne.ws/o5ECqC

How Mortgage Refinancing Could Help Spur EconomyNPR
Christopher Mayer, an economist at Columbia University, talks to Steve Inskeep about his top fix for the economy. Mayer thinks homeowners with mortgages through Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac should be able to refinance their homes at lower interest rates regardless of their credit score.
http://jlne.ws/nplVmo

Boston Fed: Local real estate fundamentals remain weak
Boston Business Journal by Eric Convey
The Federal Reserve Bank of Boston remain less-than-optimisitc when it comes to the local residential and commericial real estate communities, according to its latest economic analysis, also known as the Beige Book.
http://jlne.ws/qpkXbC

Republicans push tax reform in U.S. deficit panelReuters
By Richard Cowan and Kevin Drawbaugh
WASHINGTON -- Republicans put tax reform squarely onto the agenda of the U.S. Congress' deficit-cutting "super committee" Thursday at its first meeting, with members also stressing the need to boost job creation.
http://jlne.ws/noTxHa

Debt Panel Must Revise Social Programs, Taxes, Members SayBy Heidi Przybyla and Richard Rubin, Bloomberg
Congress's debt-cutting supercommittee must focus on revising social programs such as Medicare and revamping the U.S. tax code in seeking to cut at least $1.5 trillion from the federal budget deficit, members said during the panel's first meeting.
http://jlne.ws/n3VDUz
Major US Banks Were Forced Into New Round Of Stress Tests
Business Insider
Months before global stock markets were roiled by volatility in August, U.S. financial regulators asked major banks to test how their balance sheets would fare under extremely adverse conditions and present plans for raising emergency capital if the need arose, say people familiar with the matter.
http://jlne.ws/neMHZV

PRECIOUS METALS: Comex Gold Climbs 2.5% Amid Weaker Stocks--Comex December gold up $44.10, or 2.4%, at $1,861.70 a troy ounce
--Traders return to gold as equities weaken
--Risk sentiment erodes ahead of Bernanke, Obama speeches
NEW YORK (Dow Jones) -- Gold shook off recent losses to rally 2.5% as traders watched weaker equity markets and exercised caution ahead of speeches Thursday by U.S. officials.
http://jlne.ws/oM2tf9

Gold extends gains as caution reignsBy Emiko Terazono, FT.com
Gold prices extended their gains as sentiment remained cautious ahead of speeches by President Barack Obama, who will lay out his job-creation proposals, and Ben Bernanke, Federal Reserve chairman, on the US economy.
http://jlne.ws/oNZZCr


Exchanges, Clearing Houses & MTFs

LCH.Clearnet at centre of bid battleBy Jeremy Grant, FT.com
In 1888, the Financial Times reported in one of its first editions the creation of the London Produce Clearing House, warning that it would turn the city's produce markets into "one vast gambling house". Well over a century later London's main clearing house LCH.Clearnet -- which traces its roots back to the LPCH through the former London Clearing House -- is firmly established as one of the most critical pieces of market infrastructure in Europe. But the clearer is now at the centre of a bidding war...
http://jlne.ws/qG1eVp


Firms & Banks

Bank of America layoffs could reach 30,000
CharlotteObserver
As they work to complete the first phase of a major efficiency program, Bank of America Corp. executives are discussing plans that could slash the companywide workforce by as many as 25,000 to 30,000 jobs, sources familiar with the matter said.

Moynihan Tries to Keep BofA Intact
Bloomberg 
On the afternoon of Aug. 23, Gary G. Lynch, the global chief of legal, compliance, and regulatory relations for Bank of America Corp. (BAC), was attending a meeting in Washington when the floor heaved.

Analysis: BofA shake-up a crucial test for CEO Moynihan
Reuters
Bank of America Corp (BAC.N) Chief Executive Brian Moynihan is running out of time to fix the largest U.S. bank.
http://jlne.ws/qLIC9a

FOREX - Euro tumbles versus dollar after ECB, Fed comments
*
Euro falls more than 1 percent, breaches $1.39 support
*ECB's Trichet "intensified downside risks" to growth
*Fed Bernanke offers no new details on easing options
By Wanfeng Zhou
NEW YORK, Sept 8 (Reuters) -- The euro fell to a two-month low against the dollar on Thursday after the European Central Bank signaled a pause in its interest-rate tightening cycle that began just five months ago.
http://jlne.ws/qBeYyk

IntercontinentalExchange Announces New $300 Million Share Repurchase AuthorizationPress Release
ATLANTA, Sept. 8, 2011 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ -- IntercontinentalExchange, a leading operator of regulated global futures exchanges, clearing houses and over-the-counter (OTC) markets, announced that its Board of Directors has authorized a new share repurchase plan for the company's common stock in the amount of $300 million.
http://jlne.ws/rsYezK

GE to "vigorously contest" mortgage lawsuit(Reuters) -- General Electric Co (GE.N) said it would "vigorously contest" a lawsuit by the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which said the conglomerate's former WMC unit made inaccurate statements about the sale of two residential mortgage-backed securities.
http://jlne.ws/rt0mbU

Morgan Stanley Sees 'Concerted Easing' From ECB, Fed, BOE at G-7 MeetingBy Jeffrey Black, Bloomberg
The European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan may take concerted action to tackle weak growth and falling equity prices as soon as this week's Group of Seven meeting, according to Morgan Stanley.
http://jlne.ws/pdUt56

Bank Regulators to Unveil 'Living Will' Plan
U.S. banking regulators are set to vote next week on a final rule governing the plans large banks must draft on how they can be liquidated if they are heading toward failure.
By Reuters
WASHINGTON - U.S. regulators are set to vote next week on a final rule governing the plans large banks must draft on how they can be liquidated if they are heading toward failure.
http://jlne.ws/nudeXj

Dutch Pension Fund ABP Sues Deutsche Bank Over Securities 
Bloomberg 
Stichting Pensioenfonds ABP, Europe’s second-biggest pension fund, sued Deutsche Bank AG (DBK) for fraud, claiming it bought residential mortgage-backed securities relying on the bank’s allegedly false and misleading statements.
http://jlne.ws/oRb8xH


Auctions & Statistics

Treasurys Hold Gains After Bernanke Remarks
BY CYNTHIA LIN, WSJ.com
NEW YORK -- U.S. Treasurys held on to modest gains Thursday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's remarks reiterated that the central bank stands ready to act to help spur economic growth.
http://jlne.ws/ptN0Wh

Rates increased at weekly Treasury auctionWashington (AP) -- Interest rates on short-term Treasury bills rose slightly in Tuesday's auction but still remained near historic lows.
http://jlne.ws/o97Jsv

Deutsche Börse Adds Global Treasury Auction Data to Machine-Readable News Feed
"AlphaFlash Global Treasury Feed" makes data available from 12 countries
High Frequency Traders
Deutsche Börse has added global treasury auction data to its algorithmic news feed "AlphaFlash". The global treasury data package provides key treasury auction data from 12 countries directly from the source in a low latency, machine readable format.
http://jlne.ws/pdMjSb

Spain Changes Bonds on Sept 15 Auction, Won't Sell April 2021 BondDOW JONES NEWSWIRES
The Spanish Treasury Thursday changed the series of bonds it will auction Sept. 15, following a preliminary announcement it made Monday.
http://jlne.ws/rgNtpf


Regulators

Libor inquiry looks at criminal angle
By Brooke Masters in London and Kara Scannell in New York, FT.com
The US investigation into alleged manipulation of interbank lending rates is focusing on possible violations of a commodities law that has previously been used to send financial executives to prison.
http://jlne.ws/oZCUAp

FINRA fines 5 brokerage firms for improper fees 
BusinessWeek 
The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority on Wednesday said that it fined five broker-dealers for understating commissions charged to customers by calling part of those charges fees for handling transactions.
http://jlne.ws/naFYV0

Finra Chief Counsel Linda Riefberg Joins Fried, Frank Enforcement Practice
Bloomberg 
Former Finra Chief Counsel Linda Riefberg joined law firm Fried, Frank, Harris, Shriver & Jacobson LLP’s enforcement and investigations practice in New York.
http://jlne.ws/puXnJY

Senate panel backs U.S. bank regulator nominees 
Reuters 
The Senate Banking Committee on Thursday approved the nominations of several financial regulatory nominees who will play key roles in implementing the 2010 Dodd-Frank financial oversight law.
http://jlne.ws/okwEyV

Securities trade group seeks more study of Dodd-FrankNEW YORK, Sept 6 (Reuters) -- More than a year after the passage of the Dodd-Frank financial reform law, a major Wall Street lobbying group is urging regulators to take more time to study the effect of the rules they plan to impose.
http://jlne.ws/ppaIn6


OTC

Antioquia Gold Inc. Commences Trading on the U.S.-OTCQX
Press Release
CALGARY, ALBERTA, Sep 08, 2011 (MARKETWIRE via COMTEX) -- Antioquia Gold Inc. ("Antioquia" or the "Company") (otcqx:AGDXF) is pleased to announce that the Company's shares commenced trading today on the OTCQX, the U.S. Over-The-Counter (OTC) market's highest tier, under the symbol AGDXF.
http://jlne.ws/nAhhVC

State Street launches swaps clearing operationBy Jeremy Grant in London, FT.com
State Street Corporation, the financial services group, is to launch a swaps clearing service in a sign that market participants are starting to build new businesses to take advantage of sweeping reform of the over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives markets.
http://jlne.ws/qsO97f

INX Heads Back to NASDAQTexas TechPulse
Dallas-based INX, the provider of data center and IP communications services and products, is headed back to the NASDAQ Global Market, the firm said Thursday. The firm -- which had been regulated to over-the-counter trading in June after a delisting -- said that its application to list its common stock on the NASDAQ was approved, and it will begin trading Monday, September 12th, under the symbol INXI.
http://jlne.ws/qKr67f


Global News

BOE Keeps Rate Unchanged
By ALEX BRITTAIN, WSJ.com
LONDON-- The Bank of England kept its key interest rate and its asset-purchase program unchanged Thursday amid increasingly grim signals on the state of the economy.
http://jlne.ws/o9CBt9

Gloom descends but MPC holds fire
BBC News
The MPC has decided to hold on to its ammunition this month. But even if they had not seen today's gloomy new forecasts from the OECD, we can be pretty confident that another round of emergency cash injections for the economy -- quantitative easing -- was discussed at the latest meeting of the Bank of England's policy committee, which concluded today.
http://jlne.ws/pBF6zU

Tombini Signals More Brazil Interest Rate Cuts on Lengthy Global Slowdown
By Matthew Bristow and Alexander Ragir, Bloomberg
Brazil’s central bank signaled that it may cut borrowing costs further on expectations the global economic slowdown will help inflation slow in line with its target next year, according to the minutes of its last meeting. http://jlne.ws/oACL8t

Trichet signals end to ECB rate hikesBy William L. Watts, MarketWatch
FRANKFURT (MarketWatch) -- Jean-Claude Trichet on Thursday signaled that the European Central Bank's July interest-rate hike was its last, economists said, as inflation pressures moderate and downside risks to the economic outlook intensify.
http://jlne.ws/nGDWTk

Roubini Slams Trichet For Making The Biggest Mistake in ECB HistoryJoe Weisenthal, Business Insider
Nouriel Roubini tweets: "I was just interviewed on CNBC: The ECB has to reverse this week its biggest mistake ever, the rate hike that sharply worsened the EZ crisis."
http://jlne.ws/ogylTO

HFT 'to shake up Europe options market'By Philip Stafford, FT.com
High frequency trading is set to shake up the opaque European options trading market in more or less the same way it has transferred cash equities in recent years, a new report has found.
http://jlne.ws/p0em92

Mexico annual inflation slows in AugustBusiness Recorder
MEXICO CITY: Mexico's annual inflation rate slowed in August, giving room for the central bank to lower interest rates in an economy seen as losing momentum.
http://jlne.ws/ovODtt

IMF Pushing A Few, Big Measures To Fix Greek Finances- SourcesBy Matthew Dalton
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
BRUSSELS (Dow Jones)-- The International Monetary Fund is seeking a few large policy reforms to help close Greece's budget gap, measures that would probably require a contentious vote in the Greek parliament to be enacted, officials familiar with the situation said.
http://jlne.ws/mQbvVS

Greek economy suffers, government rules out euro zone exitBy Harry Papachristou
(Reuters) -- Greece ruled out quitting the euro on Thursday, shrugging off warnings by its biggest creditor Germany and yet another set of bad economic figures showing it is struggling under the weight of EU/IMF austerity.
http://jlne.ws/rlUHnj

Russia's Q2 GDP growth confirmed at 3.4 pct(Reuters) -- Russia's gross domestic product rose by 3.4 percent in the second quarter, year-on-year, down from 4.1 percent in the first three months of the year, the Federal Statistics Office confirmed its earlier data on Thursday.
http://jlne.ws/pglZmU













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Kamis, 07 Juli 2011

July 7, 2011:ECB raises interest rates [Newsletter]

Lead Stories

ECB raises interest rates
FRANKFURT (Reuters) - The European Central Bank raised interest rates for the second time this year on Thursday, tightening policy to address above-target inflation in the euro zone despite the intensifying debt crisis in Greece.
Following is the text of the ECB's statement issued after the meeting:
Based on its regular economic and monetary analyses, the Governing Council decided to increase the key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points, after raising rates by 25 basis points in April 2011 from historically low levels. The further adjustment of the current accommodative monetary policy stance is warranted in the light of upside risks to price stability.
http://jlne.ws/nrCHiN

European Central Bank interest rate rise puts pressure on ailing economies
Heather Stewart, The Guardian
• Jean-Claude Trichet insists weakest nations must avoid default
• Rate rise and tough comments boost European markets
Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank, tightened the screws on Greece, Portugal and Ireland on Thursday by pressing ahead with an increase in interest rates, and insisting the single currency's weakest members must avoid a default at all costs.
http://jlne.ws/r8lVZj

Lagarde pledges change of style
By Alan Beattie in Washington, The Financial Times
Christine Lagarde, the new managing director of the International Monetary Fund, has promised a more inclusive style of management and warned about financial contagion if European governments defaulted on debt.
Ms Lagarde, who took office this week, said she would adopt a more collaborative management style than Dominique Strauss-Kahn, her predecessor, and draw in people from a variety of educational and national backgrounds.
http://jlne.ws/ngXzHn

Debt Talks Turn to Social Security Cuts
By Brian Faler and Heidi Przybyla - Jul 7, 2011
July 7 (Bloomberg) -- President Barack Obama and lawmakers are considering cutting Social Security and increasing revenue by changing the way the government measures inflation.
Four senior congressional aides said lawmakers are discussing using an alternative yardstick to gauge inflation, known as the “chained consumer price index,” to determine annual cost-of-living adjustments for millions of Americans.
http://jlne.ws/nIhH8h

Instant view: BoE leaves rates unchanged as expected
LONDON | Thu Jul 7, 2011 7:13am EDT (Reuters)
The Bank of England held interest rates at a record low 0.5 percent as expected on Thursday, as concerns about Britain's lackluster economic recovery outweighed worries about high inflation.
None of the 60 economists polled by Reuters last week had forecast a rise, and money markets are not fully pricing in a hike until the middle of next year.
http://jlne.ws/n7DeOE

Asian Currencies Strengthen on Economic Growth, Interest-Rate Outlooks
By Yumi Teso, Bloomberg - Jul 7, 2011
Asian currencies gained, led by the Thai baht, on speculation the world’s fastest economic growth and rising interest rates will attract more funds to the region.
http://jlne.ws/pblfVE

Fed's Hoenig: Central Bank Should Have Raised Rates Some Time Ago
By Marshall Eckblad and Michael S. Derby Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
ADA, Oklahoma (Dow Jones)--Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Thomas Hoenig again on Thursday argued for the central bank to raise interest rates.
The non-voting member of the interest rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee has long opposed the current course of monetary policy. The Fed has pegged short-term interest rates at zero for some time now and appears in no mood to change that stance, as it completes a controversial program that saw the central bank buy $600 billion in Treasury bonds to help support growth.
http://jlne.ws/pZcose

Fed calls for uniform standards for mortgage servicers
Reuters July 7, 2011
The Federal Reserve said Thursday that it wants to see a uniform set of national standards developed for mortgage servicing companies and for handling foreclosures to prevent abuses of consumers.
In a statement filed with two House financial services subcommittees, the Fed said it also was staying in close touch with the Justice Department on negotiations with five big banks trying to settle over deficiencies in mortgage servicing and foreclosure practices.
http://jlne.ws/raBrHK

Federal Reserve Names David Wilcox as Director of U.S. Economic Research
By Joshua Zumbrun - Jul 7, 2011
The Federal Reserve Board appointed David Wilcox as the director of U.S. economic research, replacing David Stockton, who plans to retire on Sept. 30.
Wilcox, 52, will lead the 325 employees in the Division of Research and Statistics, which provides forecasts for the economic outlook at each meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, according to a Fed release today in Washington. Wilcox is currently the division’s deputy director.
http://jlne.ws/pOQtRL

China Raises Interest Rates
Customers at a supermarket in Shanghai in May. Consumer prices rose 5.5 percent in the month from the same period last year.
By BETTINA WASSENER, NYTimes.com July 6, 2011
HONG KONG — China on Wednesday raised interest rates for the fifth time in nine months, the latest in a series of moves aimed at cooling the pace of economic growth and the steep price rises that have accompanied expansion.
http://jlne.ws/ngG2l6

USE to enter interest rate futures
BS Reporter / Mumbai July 07, 2011
The United Stock Exchange (USE) will enter the interest rate futures (IRFs) trading segment. The exchange will soon apply to the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) for permission, a senior USE official told Business Standard.
At present, the USE is engaged in currency trading and competes with the National Stock Exchange (NSE) and MCX Stock Exchange (MCX SX). It has a 20 per cent market share in currency trading.
http://jlne.ws/q51jbL

RATE FUTURES REPORT: Euro Zone Debt Fears Far From Fading
WSJ.com
By Howard Packowitz Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--Frayed nerves about Europe's debt problems were on full display Tuesday in U.S. interest rate futures markets, only a week after investors expressed optimism that the crisis might not trigger a global economic slowdown.
Prices shot up Tuesday, particularly for longer-dated Eurodollar futures contracts, as traders projected short-term rates will stay low for a prolonged period.
http://jlne.ws/oLkFMR

U.S. Treasury MBS portfolio declines to $94.5 bln
WASHINGTON, July 6 (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury said on Wednesday its holdings of mortgage-backed securities bought during the financial crisis have been shrunk by more than half to $94.5 billion.
http://jlne.ws/nv59Lp



Events


Clinton Global Initiative
U.S. Department of the Treasury
Secretary Tim Geithner will sit down with former President Bill Clinton at the Clinton Global Initiative America Conference in Chicago, Illinois. At the closing session of CGI America, he'll talk about the state of the economy and the Obama Administration’s plans to help spur private sector job creation and improve America’s competitiveness.
Watch it Live Today at 5:30pm ET
http://jlne.ws/ntfBk1




Economic News

Goldman Economist Sees Rebound, but Risks of Recession Rising
By Jon Hilsenrath, WSJ.com
Jan Hatzius, the chief U.S. economist of Goldman Sachs, started out the year among the most bullish economists on Wall Street about 2011 economic growth. Six months later, after a disappointing first half, he’s less optimistic and growing a little antsy about the risk of renewed recession.
In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, Mr. Hatzius said he saw a 15% to 20% chance of renewed recession next year. His baseline forecast is still for a resumption of stronger growth in the second half of 2011 and into 2012, but he has taken down his 3.5% to 4% forecast by a half percentage point and increased his unemployment rate forecast to 8.25% from 8% by the end of 2012.
http://jlne.ws/mYqYDO

ECB suspends Portugal collateral rules
By Peter Garnham, Financial Times
The euro recovered from session lows against the dollar after the European Central Bank said it had decided to suspend the minimum rating requirement threshold for Portuguese government debt that can be used by banks as collateral for loans from the central bank.
http://jlne.ws/ow4ja3

Brazil Trade Minister Bemoans Real's Strength, High Interest Rates
Nathalie Boschat, PARIS (Dow Jones)--The strength of the Brazilian real and the high level of interest rates are hampering the Brazilian economy and particularly its exports, the country's trade minister said Thursday at a conference.
"The valuation of currencies, of the euro and the real is creating a new kind of difficulty," Fernando Pimentel, Brazilian minister of development, industry and foreign trade, told a conference organized by The Economist in Paris.
http://jlne.ws/p0JWdq

Denmark raises interest rates, mirroring ECB
COPENHAGEN, July 7 (Reuters) - Denmark's central bank raised its lending rate by a quarter percentage point to 1.55 percent on Thursday to match a similar increase by the European Central Bank and steady the Danish crown against the euro.
The Nationalbank, which runs a fixed exchange-rate monetary policy, also raised its certificate of deposit (CD) rate by 25 basis points to 1.20 percent and its current account rate by the same amount to 1.10 percent.
http://jlne.ws/oZqm2t

Wall Street Rally May Spell Pullback for U.S. Stocks
Advanced Trading By Reuters
July 05, 2011
NEW YORK -- A pullback could be on the table this week for U.S. stocks after their best weekly performance in two years, especially if a raft of data headlined by the June jobs report doesn't bolster the argument of a strengthening economy.
Stocks rose for five straight days last week as the fog of the Greek debt crisis appeared to once again be lifted while better-than-anticipated economic numbers such as Friday's manufacturing data gave weight to the belief the U.S. economy was starting to recover from a soft patch.
http://jlne.ws/oJLG5r

Bond yields tick lower as 'ongoing jitters' keep coming
Jul. 6, 2011
By Julianne Pepitone July 6, 2011
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Bond yields had been flagging for months until a stunningly rapid rise last week, sparked by defused concerns about Greek debt. It seemed yields had finally snapped out for their rut.
http://jlne.ws/p46ycG

U.S.-Listed China Stocks Decline on Rate Rise
By Belinda Cao, Bloomberg - Jul 6, 2011
China’s stocks listed in the U.S. retreated from a one-month high after the nation raised interest rates for the third time this year to tame inflation that has quickened to the fastest pace since 2008.
http://jlne.ws/o8XVSt

Fed's Bullard Slams Core Price Focus Again In New Research Note
By Michael S. Derby, Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard is again attacking the idea of setting monetary policy based on measurements of inflation stripped of food and energy factors.
http://jlne.ws/oTwsys

U.S. Treasury has more money than you think
CanadianBusiness.com
By Thomas Watson July 05, 2011
After pinching pennies to avoid a U.S. default on debts in July, U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner now insists Uncle Sam will have to break its obligations to creditors in August unless the federal government’s debt ceiling is raised.
http://jlne.ws/mQbbj1

Rep. John Boehner Slams Obama on Debt Ceiling, Debt Limit Talks
Republicans and Democrats are at an impasse over raising taxes as negotiations continue this week on raising the debt ceiling before the August 2nd deadline set by U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner. After August 2nd, if the debt limit isn’t increased, the U.S. will no longer be able to borrow money to pay its bills. The current debt ceiling is set at $14.3 trillion.
http://jlne.ws/rg7ig6

TREASURIES-Bonds rise as Portugal revives contagion fears
By Richard Leong, Reuters Wed Jul 6, 2011 12:13pm EDT
NEW YORK, July 6 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury prices rose on Wednesday as Portugal's downgrade to junk status revived fears that Europe's debt problems could cascade, spurring safe-haven demand for low-risk government bonds.
http://jlne.ws/n83HqT

State is now dominant force in US capital markets
By Gillian Tett, Financial Times
By the time you read this column today, a fascinating shift will almost certainly have occurred in the nature of US finance: for the first time the government will be the biggest source of outstanding home mortgage and consumer credit loans in the US, eclipsing private sector banks or investors.
http://jlne.ws/jOps2f




Exchanges, Clearing Houses & MTFs

ELX Futures Plans New Push For Institutional Business
By Jacob Bunge Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
The bank-backed challenger to the dominance of CME Group Inc. (CME) in the U.S. listed derivatives market is targeting institutional funds and asset managers to boost its still-small share after two years of operations.
ELX Futures LP Chief Executive Neal Wolkoff said advancements in trading technology will make its markets more attractive and accessible for buyside institutions such as pension-plan managers, mutual funds and hedge funds, touting cheaper trading costs than its Chicago-based rival.




Firms & Banks

Weber named next UBS chairman
By Haig Simonian in Zurich, Financial Times
Axel Weber is to be the next chairman of UBS, resolving succession issues at the Swiss banking group and removing any possibility the former Bundesbank president might take a top executive role at Deutsche Bank.
http://jlne.ws/k19gyu

Deutsche Bank clariffies CEO comment on Greece
Market Watch
Deutsche Bank AG said Thursday that its CEO Josef Ackermann had been misquoted in a Financial Times report that quoted him as saying the bank would take part in a solution to the Greek debt crisis "but not because we are doing it willingly." Ackermann said the bank expected to find a solution "not because we are doing it gladly, but actually to enable politicians to do so ...
http://jlne.ws/lzqLsh

SunGard Identifies Ten Trends in Credit Risk Management
Press Release
New York City – June 30, 2011 – Marcus Cree (http://twitter.com/MarcusCreeRisk), vice president of risk solutions for SunGard’s Adaptiv business unit, said, “Financial services firms have recognized that they need to manage collateral, market risk and credit risk on an enterprise-wide basis. They will adhere to that principle while launching projects to strengthen their control over credit, trading and counterparty exposure and comply with regulatory requirements such as Dodd-Frank and Basel III.”
http://jlne.ws/mnmzX3

Goldman Sachs' Central Bank Connections Reach Ever Deeper
BusinessWeek
The revolving door between Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and central banks is spinning again.
http://jlne.ws/jehNuF

Goldman, BlackRock Complete E-Traded, Cleared Credit Swap
By Katy Burne Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
Goldman Sachs Group (GS) and $3.65 trillion asset manager BlackRock Inc. (BK) announced Thursday they have completed an index credit derivative trade along the lines of what was envisaged in the 2010 Dodd- Frank financial overhaul law.
http://jlne.ws/mmpSB9

Goldman Sachs Sambas Into Brazilian Investment Banking
Forbes
Goldman Sachs is relatively a new-comer to the Brazilian market. It commenced full operations in the
http://jlne.ws/jzWg2m

Big Lehman creditor group backs bankruptcy plan
Reuters
Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc said creditors holding more than $100 billion of claims now support its reorganization plan, moving the company closer to emerging from the largest-ever U.S. bankruptcy.
http://jlne.ws/lr3wDF




Auctions & Statistics

New York Fed Puts Brakes On Maiden Lane Sales After Soft Auction

Forbes
The Federal Reserve's $600 billion Treasury bond purchase program known as QE2 wrapped up Thursday, but that wasn't the only Fed program that stopped as the central bank's New York office temporarily paused its disposition of mortgage-backed securities acquired in return for bailing out AIG in 2008.
http://jlne.ws/l8t5LX

New York Fed Halts AIG Mortgage Bond Sales on Market Conditions
By Caroline Salas Gage, Bloomberg
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York is halting its sales of mortgage bonds acquired in the rescue of American International Group Inc.
http://jlne.ws/iX8Luk

Inflation Project: June’s ISM Prices Index fell 8.5 percentage points, from May’s 76.5 percent
The Institute for Supply Management's Prices Index registered 68 percent in June, 8.5 percentage points lower than the 76.5 percent reported in May. This is the second consecutive month the Prices Index has registered below 80 percent since December 2010, and is the 24th consecutive month the index has registered above 50 percent.
http://ow.ly/5uYyw




Global News

World Bank Approves US$1 billion credit to improve rural livelihoods and boost India’s rural economy
Press Release
WASHINGTON, DC, July 05, 2011- The World Bank today approved US$1 billion credit for the National Rural Livelihoods Project (NRLP) aimed at strengthening the implementation of the Government of India’s newly launched National Rural Livelihoods Mission (NRLM), one of the world’s largest poverty reduction initiative of approximately US$7.7 billion, aiming to reach 350 million people or almost a quarter of India’s population.
http://jlne.ws/naC8fx

MONEY MARKETS-Peripheral turmoil seen as threat to ECB rate cycle
By William James
LONDON, July 6 (Reuters) - Escalating credit concerns in the euro zone periphery on Wednesday were not seen denting the European Central Bank's intention to raise interest rates on Thursday, but left the outlook for further rate hikes this year hanging in the balance.
http://jlne.ws/n6HBVX

Brazil's Central Bank Buys Dollars For BRL1.5634 At Auction
WSJ.com
SAO PAULO (Dow Jones)--The Central Bank of Brazil on Wednesday bought U.S. dollars at a snap auction for 1.5634 Brazilian reais to the dollar. The bank did not reveal the volume of dollars it purchased.
http://jlne.ws/o3w5f6

Joint Statement By President Barroso And President Van Rompuy Following The Vote In The Greek Parliament On The Implementing Measures For The Revised Economic Programme
Press Release
We strongly welcome today's approval by the Greek Parliament of the implementing legislation for the country's revised economic programme. This was the second, decisive step Greece needed to take in order to return to a sustainable path. In very difficult circumstances, it was another act of national responsibility.
http://jlne.ws/mJLp9e

Australian police charge central bank ventures
By Gwen Robinson in Sydney, Financial Times
Australian police have charged Securency International, a currency-printing technology company half owned by the country’s central bank, with bribing foreign officials.
http://jlne.ws/mpOuQ0

France shocked by upheaval in Strauss-Kahn case
By Laura Smith-Spark, CNN
France awoke Friday to the unexpected news that the case against French politician Dominique Strauss-Kahn -- accused of sexually assaulting a hotel maid in New York -- appeared to be crumbling.
http://jlne.ws/mMPnLc






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