October 7, 2011
JLN Interest Rates - http://www.jlninterestrates.com
Conversation Starter
John Lothian, publisher of this newsletter, told the publishing and communications group at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Thursday that it's important to pay attention not only to competition, but to potential competition. "There is an old saying about how you can tell who the pioneers are," he joked. " They are the ones with arrows in their backs. I don’t expect the Federal Reserve to be a pioneer, but I am glad you invited this pioneer to share his story today." Lothian was invited to talk with the group about his innovations in the social media and publishing space.
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CMA Report Indicates Greece Remains The Most Risky Sovereign Debt
CME Group's CMA division has released a report indicating that Greece remains the most risky sovereign debt as the market prices in an almost certain default event. According to CMA’s latest Sovereign Debt Credit Risk Report, in an extremely volatile quarter, the credit markets saw significant rises in the cost of protection across all regions, with downgrades by rating agencies in the U.S, Japan and Italy, as well as a slowdown of growth in China and Eurozone debt concerns affecting the broader region. For the first time, Scandinavian countries saw a significant widening as the size of the fund required to stabilise the Eurozone escalated.
See the full CMA report here.
-- Christine Nielsen
Lead Stories
Fed’s Fisher: Time For Politicians to ‘Get Their Act Together’
By Ana Campoy, WSJ.com
Congress must step up efforts to get the nation’s fiscal affairs in order, a top central banker said on Thursday. “It’s time for them to get their act together,” said Richard Fisher, president of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank, “and figure out a way to fill up the sinkholes.”
http://jlne.ws/nS4SR5
**CN: Dallas Federal Reserve head takes a stand during speech at economic conference in Fort Worth.
EU crisis poses risk to global recovery: Geithner
Reuters
Europe's worsening debt crisis could significantly damage the U.S. economy, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner warned on Thursday as he urged Europe to shore up its bailout fund.
http://jlne.ws/pX73S7
U.S. Treasury Secretary Geithner To Attend G-20 Meeting Of Finance Ministers In Paris, France
Press Release
The U.S. Department of the Treasury today announced that Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner will travel to Paris, France to attend the G-20 Meeting of Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors on October 14-15, 2011. The Secretary will meet with his international counterparts to discuss the need for a reinvigorated global effort to support growth, jobs and financial stability. Additional details regarding Secretary Geithner’s schedule will be made available over the coming days.
http://jlne.ws/nFPYYJ
Bernanke Issues Warning, Urges Action on Economy
BY JON HILSENRATH AND LUCA DI LEO, WSJ.com
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke warned the U.S. economic recovery was "close to faltering," and said Congress and the White House had a "shared responsibility" with the central bank to respond.
http://jlne.ws/qkwfCw
**CN: Bernanke wants to spur action in Washington, but he doesn't want to undermine fragile household and business confidence with gloomy talk.
Bernanke to Congress: Sluggish economic growth ahead
CNNMoney
Fed chief Ben Bernanke told a panel of Congress on Tuesday that the central bank expects growth in the second half of the year to be "more rapid" than the first half of the year, but says the economy still faces headwinds.
http://jlne.ws/oho9l5
Bernanke criticises China over currency
By Alan Beattie in Washington and Kathrin Hille in Beijing, Financial Times
The chairman of the US Federal Reserve has accused China of damaging prospects for a global economic recovery through its deliberate intervention in the currency market to hold down the value of the renminbi.
http://jlne.ws/pRImX2
Bernanke Speech Before Joint Economic Committee: Economic Outlook and Recent Monetary Policy
http://jlne.ws/pl2rAt
NY Fed Designates BMO Capital Markets And Bank Of Nova Scotia As Primary Dealers
Primary dealers serve as trading counterparties of the New York Fed in its implementation of monetary policy. This role includes the obligations to: (i) participate consistently in open market operations to carry out U.S. monetary policy pursuant to the direction of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC); and (ii) provide the New York Fed's trading desk with market information and analysis helpful in the formulation and implementation of monetary policy.
http://jlne.ws/nIyEq1
Tighter rules on capital: Bankers versus Basel
By Brooke Masters and Tom Braithwaite, Financial Times
The industry is preparing a full-on assault on a deal regulators see as the best way to prevent future financial meltdown – and the question is whether the accord will be left with enough teeth
http://jlne.ws/p0g76Z
Bank of England chief Mervyn King says UK facing worst economic crisis in history
The Associated Press
The head of the Bank of England says the world may be facing the worst economic crisis ever — only hours after surprising markets by sanctioning another 75 billion pound ($116 billion) injection into a British economy that's suffering shock waves from Europe's debt crisis. Mervyn King told Sky News on Thursday that the crisis was the most serious since the 1930s, "if not ever."
http://jlne.ws/qghPKc
UK: Bigger boom, deeper bust, earlier recovery
The present is grim and the future is terrifying. But at least the distant past looks a bit brighter. That is the message from new estimates of Britain's GDP, released this morning. The statisticians made minor changes to the recent past but substantially rewrote earlier economic history. GDP in the first and second quarters was revised down a notch: the annual change to the second quarter is now a measly 0.6%, revised from 0.7%. But there were more chunky revisions to figures for 2007-10. In short: the economy was stronger going into recession, fell harder, and recovered earlier (and a bit more strongly) than previously thought.
IMF: Chances of Recession Rising for Europe
BY RIVA FROYMOVICH AND IAN TALLEY, WSJ.com
The International Monetary Fund could create a special financing tool to buy bonds in private markets as a way to help stem the euro zone's debt crisis, a senior IMF official said Wednesday.
http://jlne.ws/p0crgD
IMF Sees Latin America Facing a Range of Challenges from Global Crisis
Press Release
http://jlne.ws/qyYhu2
30-Year Mortgage Rates Fall Below 4%
Reuters
Europe's worsening debt crisis could significantly damage the U.S. economy, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner warned on Thursday as he urged Europe to shore up its bailout fund.
http://jlne.ws/n9mfcA
Senate Committee OK's U..S Consumer Bureau Nominee
By Dave Clarke, Reuters
The U.S. Senate Banking Committee voted on Thursday in favor of President Barack Obama's nominee to head the new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.
http://jlne.ws/p4JkSs
European Central Bank to buy €40bn covered bonds
FT.com
Europe’s covered bond market is to be shored up by a €40bn purchase programme in a move to boost the continent’s economy and provide extra financing for banks.
http://jlne.ws/qNnPGe
Obama Says He Would Accept a Surtax on High Incomes
By HELENE COOPER, THE New York Times
President Obama said on Thursday that he was “comfortable” with a Senate proposal to pay for his jobs legislation with a tax surcharge on income above $1 million.
http://jlne.ws/r6jtwR
EU works on banks, Obama urges swift action
Reuters
European Union moves to shore up ailing banks moved into higher gear on Thursday as U.S. President Barack Obama urged European leaders to act faster to tackle a sovereign debt crisis that threatens global economic recovery.
http://jlne.ws/qcwF3F
Soros Insider-Trading Conviction Reviewed
By Heather Smith, Bloomberg
Billionaire investor George Soros’s fight against his 2002 insider-trading conviction in France, over the sale of Societe Generale SA shares, may end tomorrow when the European Court of Human Rights rules on his appeal.
http://jlne.ws/oQprTn
SIFMA Supports Legislation Making Current Tax Rates on Savings, Investing Permanent
Washington, DC, October 5, 2011—SIFMA issued the following statement from Kenneth E Bentsen, Jr., executive vice president, public policy and advocacy, after the introduction of The Tax Hike Prevention and Business Certainty Act in both the House of Representatives and Senate by Rep. Peter Roskam (Ill.) and Sen. Mike Crapo (Idaho) to make permanent the current tax rates on capital gains and dividends.
http://jlne.ws/oN8wZt
Gross Favors Safe Sovereigns With Risk of Recession Rising
BusinessWeek
Bill Gross, the manager of the world's biggest bond fund, said that he favors investing in so- called safe sovereign debt of nations that have the ability to raise monetary stimulus as the risk of recession increases.
http://jlne.ws/qQrLG6
Moody's downgrades Italy's government bond ratings to A2 with a negative outlook
Moody's Investors Service: Moody's Investors Service has today downgraded Italy's government bond ratings to A2 with a negative outlook from Aa2, while affirming its short-term ratings at Prime. 1. The rating action concludes the review for downgrade initiated by Moody's on 17 June, 2011.
http://jlne.ws/oMX4YCJLN
BMO predicts interest rates will stay flat until 2013
The Canadian Press
A big Canadian bank predicts the slumping economy will put interest rates on hold, or moving lower, until at least until 2013. In an interest rate outlook released Tuesday, the Bank of Montreal said it does not expect interest rates to rise again until the early part of 2013.
http://jlne.ws/nwMo13
Ken Griffin's Citadel Is Killing It This Year: Up More Than 15% YTD
Business Insider
Ken Griffin's hedge funds are up 15% this year - and, his main funds didn't lose money in September.
http://jlne.ws/qLuJ2F
Warren Buffett On Taxes, Europe, And Women
By Megan Barnett and Nin-Hai Tseng, Fortune
http://jlne.ws/ohQKWp
Buffett: Europe’s Banks Shouldn’t Look to Berkshire
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK/A)’s Warren Buffett, who has sold most of the company’s holdings in European sovereign debt, said his firm isn’t interested in helping to bail out lenders on the continent.
http://jlne.ws/nDsooY
Buffett: BofA Needs ‘Much Longer’ to Clean Up
By Andrew Frye and Hugh Son, Bloomberg
Warren Buffett, whose Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK/A) invested $5 billion in Bank of America Corp. (BAC), said that problems at the biggest U.S. lender by assets will take “much longer” to
clean up.
http://jlne.ws/oi59HY
Fed's 'Operation Twist' Gets Underway
By Peter Schroeder, The Hill
The Federal Reserve began buying up billions of dollars in government bonds Monday in a bid to pump life into the economy. The tactic, dubbed "Operation Twist," has drawn fire from Republicans, who specifically called on the Fed not to act before the strategy was announced. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is slated to testify before Congress Tuesday and will likely come under fire for the policy.The Federal Reserve Bank of New York launched the strategy Monday by identifying up to $2.75 billion in long-term Treasury bonds it will purchase over the course of the next two days.
http://jlne.ws/oM75Gq
Firms, Markets Will Sidestep European Tax On Trading
By Jacob Bunge, DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
Banks, trading firms and exchanges will find ways to circumvent a tax on trading being pushed by European nations, according to a senior executive at one of the industry's most influential electronic trading groups.
http://jlne.ws/opqquA
Why Americans Should Care About The EU's Proposed Financial Services Tax
It's Your Money
The European Union's proposed $78 billion a year financial transaction tax will take a bite out of the portfolios of American investors, according to the Financial Services Roundtable, a leading U.S. lobbying organization.
http://jlne.ws/o8CaH3
Europe warned on reform of derivatives
By Jeremy Grant in London
The biggest users of derivatives, including banks and asset managers, have warned the European Commission that imminent reform of derivatives markets risks “embedding lack of choice” and call for the business of clearing to be opened up to competition.
http://jlne.ws/pv7F2a
Events
CMA/SCI New York CDS Seminar
October 6, 2011
CMA/SCI Discussions Will Focus On Dodd-Frank Regulations
http://jlne.ws/n7ukqG
The European Exchanges Summit
October 17 - October 18, 2011
Marketforce and the IEA discuss key issues with Europe's industry leaders
http://jlne.ws/roaBqg
FIA Chief Compliance Officer Bootcamp And Dodd-Frank
October 24, 2011
FIA looks At Role Of Compliance Officer Under Dodd-Frank
http://jlne.ws/plwBMV
7th Annual FIA Asia Derivatives Conference
November 29 - December 1, 2011
FIA looks at the futures and options industry in Asia
http://www.futuresindustry.org/asia-2011.asp
Economic News
Plunging business activity fuels euro recession fears
By Mark Felsenthal and Jonathan Cable, Reuters
The euro zone's services sector shrank for the first time in two years in September as new orders dried up, stoking fears that the region's economy could be heading back into recession.
http://jlne.ws/pPubSD
Private Sector Adds 91,000 Jobs
By Mark Felsenthal and Jonathan Cable, Reuters
The euro zone's services sector shrank for the first time in two years in September as new orders dried up, stoking fears that the region's economy could be heading back into recession.
http://jlne.ws/oREMMS
Forecast says double-dip recession now inevitable
By Chris Isidore, CNN Money
The U.S. economy is staring down another recession, according to a forecast from the Economic Cycle Research Institute.
http://jlne.ws/qoTTZi
Euro-Zone Inflation Surges
BY PAUL HANNON, WSJ.com
Consumer prices in the 17-member euro zone rose at the fastest pace in almost three years even as the economy slowed sharply, leaving the European Central Bank's rate setters to make a very tough call when they meet next week.
http://jlne.ws/oEZ6Sz
Consumer Spending in U.S. Slows as Incomes Fall
By Alex Kowalski and Bob Willis, Bloomberg
Consumer spending slowed in August as incomes dropped for the first time in almost two years, showing scarce jobs are preventing the U.S. economy from gaining ground.
http://jlne.ws/riJIat
Exchanges, Clearing Houses & MTFs
NYPC Sees Large Notional Increase for Second Physical Delivery | New York Portfolio Clearing
Press Release
New York Portfolio Clearing, LLC (NYPC), the innovative new clearing platform for interest rate futures, announced today that it has successfully executed its second physical delivery of US Treasury futures. NYPC’s “locked-in” trade delivery system seamlessly submitted $1.952 billion notional in expiring US Treasury futures from NYPC to The Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation's (DTCC) Fixed Income Clearing Corporation (FICC) for physical delivery.
http://jlne.ws/qlTMd0
Anonymous Threatens to 'Erase' the NYSE
http://jlne.ws/p4GXVe
Euribor Futures To Join Eurodollar Futures On CME Globex — Oct. 3, 2011 (Video)
http://cmegroup.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=132&video=26
Clearing House Assails Rules for More Bank Capital
New York Times
The Clearing House Association warns that requiring layers of bank capital protection would devastate the industry's returns and have a chilling effect on the economy.
http://jlne.ws/obqe08
Firms & Banks
Goldman predicts a fire sale of USD assets by French banks
By John McDermott, FT.com
There were a few cheeky titbits in an otherwise workmanlike Goldman Sachs note published Wednesday on US banks. First up for a teasing: French banks. As we know, US banks are sitting ducklings in the middle of the European maelstrom. This is mostly bad news. But there is some good news for Wall Street, of course. Goldman reckons that European banks’ portfolio of US dollar denominated assets will be in the shop window.
http://jlne.ws/rcBkrI
UBS loss throws light on ‘synthetic’ problem
By Tracy Alloway and Izabella Kaminska, Financial Times
The revelation of a $2.3bn trading loss at UBS’s Delta One desk has thrust a big banking business into an unflattering spotlight. At its heart, Delta One is about banks creating – and profiting off of – bespoke synthetic exposures for their clients. That can mean Delta One is involved in everything from exchange traded funds aimed at retail and institutional investors, to “synthetic prime” brokerages acting on behalf of hedge fund customers.
http://jlne.ws/mTZmjg
Morgan Stanley Bet the Farm in Ukraine Before Fed Bailout by U.S. Taxpayer
Bloomberg
Iowa native Justin Bruch marveled at the opportunity when Morgan Stanley (MS) called in late 2007 to recruit him for an unusual assignment. The New York bank, flush with $7.5 billion in fiscal 2006 profit -- the biggest in its history -- was going to be farming 11 parcels on the steppes of Ukraine.
http://jlne.ws/rlV1tb
Bank of New York Mellon sued over currency trades
http://jlne.ws/q1Kin7
Morgan Stanley paves path to Paulson, again
Reuters
Even as John Paulson's largest hedge fund portfolios are clocking double-digit losses, brokerage giant Morgan Stanley (MS.N) is helping some of its wealthy clients put money with one of the industry's biggest stars.
http://jlne.ws/qgaGTF
BofA's New $5 Debit Card Fee? Blame Dodd-Frank
Forbes
The inevitable happened today. Bank of America said it will start charging customers a $5 monthly fee on debit card purchases.
http://jlne.ws/ooczWf
Bank of America's Third Strategic Mistake
Forbes
As we wrote in a previous piece, back in the mid of the subprime crisis, Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) committed two strategic mistakes that end up costing the bank dearly: the purchase of Countrywide Financial and the purchase of Merrill Lynch.
http://jlne.ws/oVIk7L
Deutsche Bank Abandons Profit Goal, Cuts Jobs
BusinessWeek
Deutsche Bank AG scrapped its profit forecast and announced 500 job cuts and further writedowns of Greek bond holdings amid a "significant and unabated slowdown in client activity" in the wake of Europe's debt crisis.
http://jlne.ws/njvodl
Deutsche Bank To Axe 500 Jobs In Corporate Banking And Securities, Mostly Outside Of Germany
Business Insider
Deutsche Bank announced today that it will eliminate 500 positions in the bank's corporate banking and securities corporate division. Today the German bank said in its release that the main reason for the layoffs is the uncertain economic environment stemming from the ongoing eurozone crisis.
http://jlne.ws/o8HxDS
Deutsche Bank chief opposes revision of Greek debt deal
Reuters via Yahoo! News
Changing the terms of voluntary private sector participation in a bailout for Greece agreed in July could cost the support of private investors, the head of Deutsche Bank said in an interview published on Saturday.
http://jlne.ws/pn18Cz
The Top 400 Banks on Twitter
The Financial Brand
The Financial Brand tracks 400 English-speaking retail banks on Twitter. This list represents nearly all such banks, with a handful of exceptions here and there. What does the typical bank on Twitter look like? They have around 250 followers, and pump out a tweet about every week or so.
http://jlne.ws/oFEHXw
Regulators
Trichet legacy hinges on debt crisis outcome
By William L. Watts, MarketWatch
Jean-Claude Trichet’s legacy as president of the European Central Bank will undoubtedly be determined in the still unwritten final chapters of Europe’s sovereign debt crisis.
http://jlne.ws/psqKNC
EU ministers look at bank aid plans
By Peter Spiegel and Alex Barker, FT.com
http://jlne.ws/oeeAtz
Fed's Bullard worried by price expectations drop: report
Reuters
St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard said he is troubled by a drop in inflation expectations but does not see deflation as likely and still sees a high bar to further quantitative easing, the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday.
http://jlne.ws/oIiKpC
Osborne: 'British banks protected from debt crisis' ([Video]
BBC
European stock markets have suffered a second day of heavy falls amid growing concerns about the Greek debt crisis. Shares in the banking group Dexia lost almost a fifth of their value, despite promises of support from the French and Belgian governments.
http://jlne.ws/qGdmQJ
New York Fed May Demand Europe's Banks Produce More Details on Liquidity
Bloomberg
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York may ask foreign lenders for more detailed daily reports on liquidity as the U.S. steps up monitoring of risks from Europe's sovereign debt crisis, according to two people with knowledge of the matter.
http://jlne.ws/n4nJo3
SEC: Credit Rater May Have Leaked Rate Move
By Joshua Gallu, Bloomberg
U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission inspectors said a large credit rating firm “appeared to allow” for a pending rating decision to be disclosed to certain people before the action was publicly announced.
http://jlne.ws/qDF0YM
ECB faces interest rate dilemma
By Neil Dennis, Financial Times
Purchasing manager surveys on business activity in the manufacturing and services sectors will have added significance this week for any bearing they may have on policy decisions from the European Central Bank and the Bank of England on Thursday.
http://jlne.ws/psp5A5
FRB: H.4.1 Release--Factors Affecting Reserve Balances--September 29, 2011
http://jlne.ws/nUcCi1
OTC
OTC Derivatives Clearing and the Buy Side in the US: Rough Ride Ahead
Press Release
The overhauling of the OTC derivatives market in the form of the Dodd-Frank Act (DFA) has brought about a sea change in the clearing environment. The legislation is expected to ensure greater transparency and accountability in the system. However, the move from bilateral to counterparty clearing will require a great deal of resources on the part of market participants, especially the buy side.
http://jlne.ws/nZRjNP
CDS numbers count against banking system
By David Oakley and Tracy Alloway, Financial Times
Sometimes a number tells the story best. On Tuesday that number seemed to be eurozone bank credit default swaps, or CDS, which show the region’s financial system is closer to breakdown than at any time in recent years.
http://jlne.ws/n1Okfx
Bank Default Swaps Increase in Europe as Bigger Losses on Greek Bonds Loom
Bloomberg
Credit-default swaps insuring bank debt surged after European lawmakers signaled lenders may have to take bigger losses on holdings of Greek debt.
http://jlne.ws/psX7v7
CDS numbers count against banking system
By David Oakley and Tracy Alloway, FT.com
http://jlne.ws/ouFJpp
Global News
France fights pressure to recapitalise banks
By Hugh Carnegy, FT.com
Nicolas Sarkozy, who will be in Berlin on Sunday for euro crisis talks, must have winced when he heard Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, say on Wednesday that her government was prepared, if necessary, to recapitalise the country’s banks.
http://jlne.ws/pULdnX
Central Bank of Kenya Ups Rate 400bps to 11.00%
Central Bank News
The Central Bank of Kenya upped its benchmark lending rate by 400 basis points to 11.00% from 7.00% previously. The central bank Governor, Njuguna Ndung'u, said: "The Committee decided to raise the CBR by 400 basis points to 11.0 percent. In addition, the MPC will be meeting every first week of the month until further notice," and said the CBK "will revise the CBR further if inflation and exchange rate volatility do not abate." also noting: "inflationary pressure has continued to increase and both the weakening of the shilling and its volatility poses additional threats."
http://jlne.ws/qe8C0Z
Dexia GG revival risks setting dangerous precedent
Market participants warned on Wednesday that the decision to guarantee Dexia's debt could set a dangerous precedent and force more state intervention into European banks at a time when sovereigns can ill afford it.
http://jlne.ws/n1TmIX
Dexia Is Setting Up 'Bad Bank'
By Mark Gongloff, WSJ.com
Franco-Belgian lender Dexia is set to park assets worth in excess of EUR180 billion into a so-called bad bank, a vehicle backed by guarantees from the French and Belgian governments, in an effort to disentangle itself from gripping liquidity strains, people familiar with the matter said Tuesday.
http://jlne.ws/rmbIFl
Tremonti Says Spain’s Narrower Bond Spread May Reflect Vote
By Lorenzo Totaro, Bloomberg Businessweek
Italian Finance Minister Giulio Tremonti said the fact that Spanish bonds yield less than Italy’s debt over German bunds may reflect imminent elections in Spain.
http://jlne.ws/r8fcwy
India April-June Current Account Deficit Widens to $14.1 Billion
BY NUPUR ACHARYA, WSJ.com
India's April-June current account deficit widened to $14.1 billion from $12.0 billion a year earlier due to a moderation in receipts.
http://jlne.ws/qEfFVF
Greek Aid Talks Roll On Amid Protests
BY COSTAS PARIS AND ALKMAN GRANITSAS, WSJ.com
Talks between international inspectors and the Greek government on a deal for fresh financial aid Friday became increasingly overshadowed by protests and resistance from state-owned companies.
http://jlne.ws/qPE7dz
Italy to Use Assets to Reduce Debt
BY CHRISTOPHER EMSDEN, WSJ.com
Italy's economy minister announced plans Thursday to make better use of state assets to ease the country's €1.9 trillion ($2.573 trillion) public-debt load and spur economic growth.
http://jlne.ws/oYdsLi
Asian bankers captivated by UBS woes
By Patrick Jenkins and Robert Cookson, Financial Times
If there is one prospect that has Hong Kong M and;A bankers licking their lips at the moment, it is the idea that UBS – the Swiss bank rocked by a $2.3bn alleged trading scandal, and the resignation of its chief executive – might sell its crown-jewel Asian business.
http://jlne.ws/nJeznw
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