August 25, 2011
JLN Interest Rates - http://www.jlninterestrates.com
Conversation Starter
We’re about to redesign the JLN Interest Rates Newsletter. In an effort to make the JLN Interest Rates Newsletter and accompanying blog better, and tailor it toward our readership's needs, we're distributing the following survey. The more responses we get, the better we will understand what we should and should not include in our offerings. Please be proactive to get what you'd like to read. Click on the link and give us your thoughts.
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--Christine Nielsen
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BIS: Call For Papers For The Joint ECB-BIS Workshop On "Global Liquidity And Its International Repercussions"
"Global liquidity" is a term frequently employed to explain the rally in stock markets, the decline in bond yields, the real estate booms, the surge in international capital flows and the rise in inflation observed in the years before the crisis and/or more recently. Similarly, some see the drying up of global liquidity as responsible for serious episodes of financial distress internationally. That said, global liquidity is an elusive and multi-faceted concept. In the economics profession there is no consensus on its definition, measurement, causes and implications. As a result, explanations that rely on global liquidity are often speculative and controversial... In an upcoming workshop, BIS aims to bring together academics and researchers to present and discuss research on global liquidity. The deadline for research paper submissions is Nov. 30, 2011.
Read about the BIS paper and workshop here.
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MarketsWiki Questions: Exploring Financial Technology - Question 5 Interactive Video Now Available
Ahead of our MarketsWiki Questions: Exploring Financial Technology event in October we're asking experts in the financial services industry seven questions and providing the best answers in an interactive video format.
Question 5: Build or Buy? What parts of trading technology are worth building and what are worth buying? - http://jlne.ws/qh4JCb
(Question 5 is sponsored by: Traiana - http://lin.sh/mwq_traianalogo)
Lead Stories
Citigroup Downgrades Global GDP Growth for 2011 & 2012
24/7 Wall St.
Citigroup is downgrading the global growth targets for 2011 and 2012. The economic team there now sees the global growth Citigroup cut its 2011 global GDP growth forecast to 3.1% from a prior rate of 3.4%. More importantly, it is cutting the global GDP growth for 2012 down to 3.2% from 3.7%.
http://jlne.ws/qODenL
Warren Buffett invests $5bn in Bank of America
BBC
Warren Buffett's company Berkshire Hathaway has announced it is investing $5bn (£3.1bn) in Bank of America. News of the world famous investor's decision sent Bank of America's shares more than 25% higher.
http://jlne.ws/oEyRRx
Henry Blodget vs. Bank of America: "Rotted to the Core"
Yahoo! Finance: The Daily Ticker
A major controversy has erupted in the blogosphere over the value of Bank of America's balance sheet, and whether the bank will be forced to raise capital in the near future. At the center of the debate is my colleague Henry Blodget, who touched off a maelstrom Tuesday with a blog that concluded Bank of [...]
http://jlne.ws/rqrPra
BofA moves to counter more blog rumours
By Helen Thomas, David Gelles and Telis Demos in New York, Financial Times
Bank of America has again sought to calm investors’ fears about the bank, for the second day taking the unusual step of directly addressing rumours and analysis published in the blogosphere.
http://jlne.ws/qAg2WB
No Agreement on Bank of America Capital Needs
Wall Street Journal Blogs
It's amazing how divergent the views are on the health of Bank of America.
http://jlne.ws/oQKQ0F
Bank of America and Goldman bonds lose friends
Futures Magazine
Yields marked time on Tuesday buffeted by a strong rally for stocks yet underpinned by hopes that the Jackson Hole address by Fed Chairman Bernanke on Friday will maintain downside pressure on yields.
http://jlne.ws/qPBqCD
Ratings firms reaffirm German AAA status:
By MarketWatch
Ratings firms Fitch, Moody's and Standard & Poor's reaffirmed Germany's triple-A credit rating on Thursday, CNBC reported. The cable network said spokesmen from the three agencies reaffirmed the rating and outlook after Germany's DAX stock index extended a decline on market rumors of a potential downgrade.
http://jlne.ws/q5fgFX
Moody's Cuts Japan's Credit Rating
By WILLIAM SPOSATO, WSJ
TOKYO—Moody's Investors Service downgraded Japan's sovereign debt rating Wednesday, but assigned it a stable outlook and said there was little chance of a crisis in Japan's debt market any time soon.
http://jlne.ws/qXLN2f
Moody’s not pleased with Greek collateral grab
Posted by Joseph Cotterill, Financial Times
Following Finland’s cash collateral deal with Greece — an issuer comment from Moody’s on Monday:
http://jlne.ws/p4eH8i
Moody's Ex-Staffer Says Ratings Rife With Conflicts
ABC News
The former Moody's analyst who filed comments with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is critical of internal systems at his former employer but is not holding his breath for regulators to save it.
http://jlne.ws/nwwi85
Former Moody’s Exec Details Sleaze Within Credit Rating Firm
By Alain Sherter, BNET
It’s open season on the credit rating agencies, and at least one former Moody’s (MCO) executive is doing the shooting. William Harrington, until 2010 a senior analyst in
the firm’s derivatives group, accuses Moody’s of everything from tailoring its securities ratings to suit financial industry clients to lying to lawmakers about the company’s
actions.
http://jlne.ws/n4A342
Fitch: U.S. Money Funds Reduce Exposure, Shorten Maturities to European Banks
Reuters
U.S. prime money market funds (MMFs) lowered the maturity profile of their CD exposures to European banks in several countries while also reducing their total exposure to European banks, according to a Fitch Ratings report.
http://jlne.ws/qR6zlE
European Central Bank buys E14.3 billion in bonds
AP via Yahoo! News
The European Central Bank spent E14.3 billion ($20.6 billion) last week buying government bonds to protect large economies like Spain and Italy from the debt crisis, but market concerns persisted about how long the emergency purchases would contain market turmoil.
http://jlne.ws/mYddgA
Misdiagnosing the eurozone’s banks
Financial Times
Falls in eurozone bank shares have set off warning bells for the bloc’s banking sector. It is a false alarm – for now. With local exceptions, European banks are not squeezed for funds. Alarmism risks fuelling the sort of misdiagnosis that has already made governments throw good taxpayer money down holes dug by banks themselves.
http://jlne.ws/puuR3r
Morgan Stanley at Brink Got $107B From Fed
By Bradley Keoun, Bloomberg
As markets convulsed in September 2008, Morgan Stanley (MS) Treasurer David Wong briefed the Federal Reserve on a “dark” scenario in which the U.S. firm would need at least $10 billion of emergency loans from the central bank.
http://jlne.ws/rjNsVX
A Rush Out of 'Junk'
BY MATT WIRZ, KATY BURNE AND VIPAL MONGA, Dow Jones
The market for "junk" bonds is enduring its worst rout since the depths of the financial crisis. Demand for high-yield bonds sold by the riskiest U.S. companies has nearly dried up, an ominous sign for low-rated companies hoping to tap the bond markets and private-equity firms trying to finance leveraged buyouts. New junk-bond offerings in August were at their lowest level since December 2008.
http://jlne.ws/nLuz4S
Foreclosures A Third Of Sales; Mortgage Rates Rise
By NPR Staff and Wires
Foreclosures made up roughly one-third of all home sales this spring. While that's a smaller share of sales from the previous quarter, it's six times the percentage of foreclosures in a healthy housing market. Meanwhile, fixed mortgage rates edged up this week from their lowest levels in decades.
http://jlne.ws/pR1dO5
Bernanke Is Unlikely to Promise New Action by the Fed
BY DAVID WESSEL, WSJ
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is unlikely to use his speech Friday at the Federal Reserve's annual Jackson Hole, Wyo., conclave to unveil new efforts to bolster the U.S. economy—despite financial markets' lingering hopes that he will.
http://jlne.ws/ogp0xg
Bernanke Not Planning Policy Announcement: Influential Research Firm
By: John Melloy, CNBC
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will not hint at a third round of quantitative easing [cnbc explains] at the central bank's annual Jackson Hole, Wyo., summit this week, according to Medley Global Advisors, an influential research firm.
http://jlne.ws/q2gYam
The Illusion of Bank Profits: A Bridge to a Cliff
Forbes
It's about those profits, folks. They are nothing but smoke and mirrors.
http://jlne.ws/rrT5uz
Investors adopt longer-term approach to Treasuries
By Telis Demos and Aline van Duyn in New York, Financial Times
The search for yield among investors continues. But, amid mounting fears of a double-dip, it is taking a new twist. The main avenue for yield enhancement in recent years has been a switch into riskier assets – from junk bonds to asset-backed securities.
http://jlne.ws/p8pRuU
The Rich Can Afford to Pay More Taxes
By BRUCE BARTLETT, NY Times
The issue is not whether the wealthy should pay more, but how best to accomplish it, an economist writes.
http://jlne.ws/pp51sS
FDIC ‘Problem’ Banks Shrink, First Time Since ’06
By Meera Louis, Bloomberg
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.’s list of “problem” banks fell in the second quarter for the first time since 2006 as the industry’s income improved and costs tied to bad loans eased.
http://jlne.ws/pKBfxv
Searching for the Financial Accelerator: How Credit Affects the Business Cycle
Federal Reserve Bank Of St. Louis
A prominent view in economics is that malfunctioning credit markets “are not simply passive reflections of a declining real economy, but are in themselves a major factor depressing economic activity.”
http://jlne.ws/oeKmXN
N.Y. judge dismisses Strauss-Kahn charges
By Sue Chang, MarketWatch
A New York judge has dismissed sexual assault charges against former International Monetary Fund chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn, according to media reports Tuesday. The move had been expected after prosecutors admitted that credibility issues with Nafissatou Diallo, the accuser, had hurt the case, reports said.
http://t.co/qm0CaMu
MSRB Files Supervisory Rule for Muni Advisors
By Lynn Hume, The Bond Buyer
The Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board has filed a proposed rule with the Securities and Exchange Commission that would require muni advisors to establish supervisory systems to ensure they and their "associated persons" comply with SEC and MSRB rules.
http://jlne.ws/nzUg7a
Head of rating agency S and P stepping down
AP via Yahoo! News
The president of Standard & Poor's is stepping down, an announcement coming only weeks after the rating agency's unprecedented move to strip the United States of its AAA credit rating.
http://jlne.ws/q6fbCN
Wall Street Aristocracy Got $1.2 Trillion From Fed
By Bradley Keoun and Phil Kuntz, Bloomberg
Citigroup Inc. (C) and Bank of America Corp. (BAC) were the reigning champions of finance in 2006 as home prices peaked, leading the 10 biggest U.S. banks and
brokerage firms to their best year ever with $104 billion of profits.
http://jlne.ws/npgb3z
Survey: More economists prefer cuts over taxes
The Associated Press
The majority of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics believe that the federal deficit should be reduced only or primarily through spending cuts.
http://jlne.ws/p2eT5b
Financial Firms Were Busy Hiring In The Calm Before The Storm
By William Hutchings Of FINANCIAL NEWS
Investment banks and asset managers expanded their U.K.-based staff significantly over the 12 months to June, shortly before what turned out to be a period of market turmoil, according to recently published figures. The number of "Financial Services Authority-approved persons", that is, staff whose seniority or function requires them to be approved by the UK's financial services regulator, increased by at least 10% at eight investment banks and two asset managers over the 12 months to June, according to figures collated and just published by Imas, a U.K. corporate finance adviser.
http://jlne.ws/oaY3OW
Rep. Van Hollen on U.S. Debt Panel Outlook
Bloomberg
U.S. Representative Christopher Van Hollen, a Maryland Democrat who sits on the 12-member deficit-cutting super committee, talks about the prospects for finding $1.5 trillion in budget savings. He speaks with Erik Schatzker on Bloomberg Television's "InsideTrack."
http://jlne.ws/rlKIUT
Fed says it is treating US, European banks the same
Reuters
LONDON/NEW YORK: The Federal ReserveBank is treating foreign banks the same as their US peers, atop policymaker said on Thursday, contrary to a published report that said the US central bank was keeping a closer eyeon European banks struggling with the continent's debt crisis.
http://jlne.ws/pk8bM7
The CFTC Announces Appointment of Gary Barnett as Swaps Division Director
Press Release
Washington, DC - The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) today announced the appointment of Gary Barnett to serve as the agency’s Director of the Division of Swap Dealer and Intermediary Oversight. The new division is part of the agency’s restructuring to fulfill its expanded responsibilities under the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (Dodd-Frank Act). Barnett will play a key role in the CFTC’s efforts to regulate the swaps market under the law.
http://jlne.ws/mWyHkC
Events
Valuation and Pricing Methodologies of Debt Instruments - Auction Rate Securities
Sept. 1, 2011
Madison Street Capital (MSC) Is Lead Presenter In This Financial Research Associates Webinar Segment
http://jlne.ws/pxF2sq
FIA Treasury & Rates Forum
Sept. 14, 2011
FIA Program On Growing Role Of Treasury Futures - New York City
http://jlne.ws/fQFQXP
SEFCON II
Oct. 3, 2011
WMBAA To Examine Role And Operation Of Swap Execution Facilities Under Dodd-Frank
http://jlne.ws/pY4N7S
Economic News
Kansas City Fed Mfg Survey Shows Modest Expansion
By Gary Siegel, The Bond Buyer
Manufacturing activity in the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s region “continued to expand modestly, and producers remained generally positive about future months,” according to the bank’s monthly manufacturing survey, released Thursday.
http://jlne.ws/rqP3yc
Home mortgage applications fall to 15-year low
By DEREK KRAVITZ, Associated Press
Mortgage applications to purchase a home fell last week to a 15-year low, despite the lowest mortgage rates in decades.
http://jlne.ws/rnkbqq
German Ifo business morale plummets in August
By Annika Breidthardt, Reuters
German business morale posted its steepest drop this month since the aftermath of the Lehman Brothers collapse in late 2008, raising fresh doubts about the broader European economy as it grapples with a crippling debt crisis.
http://jlne.ws/phCUDg
Durable-goods orders climb 4.0% in July
By Jeffry Bartash, MarketWatch
Orders for U.S. durable goods jumped 4.0% in July, mainly because of higher demand for autos and commercial aircraft, the government reported Wednesday.
http://jlne.ws/nxHZIR
US: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index fell to -10 in August
FXstreet.com
The US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index decreased to -10 in August, in comparison with the -1 drop in July, according to data published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
http://jlne.ws/nkY7CP
New Home Sales Fell 0.7 Percent In July
By DEREK KRAVITZ, Associated Press
Sales of new homes fell for the third straight month in July, a sign that housing remains a drag on the economy. If the current pace continues, 2011 would be the worst year for new-home sales in nearly half a century.
http://jlne.ws/ofpuzE
Retailers Brace for Weak Second Half
By Lauren Coleman-Lochner and Matt Townsend, Bloomberg
Retailers’ slowest earnings growth since the last recession has them bracing for a weakened second half as the U.S. economy leaves consumers confronting the prospect of losing their jobs and a volatile stock market.
http://jlne.ws/r5jLv3
Consumer Edge says U.S. confidence hits new low
Reuters
Consumer confidence has fallen further after weeks of intensified economic concerns and broad stock market declines, and Conference Board data due later this month could be even weaker than current projections suggest, Consumer Edge Research said on Monday.
http://jlne.ws/rc1d6k
Mortgage delinquencies rise in second quarter
By Amy Hoak, MarketWatch
Mortgage delinquencies rose in the second quarter, a development that reflects the deterioration of the job market, the Mortgage Bankers Association’s chief economist said on Monday.http://jlne.ws/qGOFo9
Housing markets: Low rates, no interest
The Economist
Mortgage rates reached record lows this week, according to the weekly market survey from Freddie Mac. The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan fell to 4.15 percent, with borrowers paying an average point of 0.7 percent. That rate is down from 4.32 percent last week.
http://jlne.ws/qJBUwr
Unemployment rates rose last month in 28 states, and fell in 9, showing the job market is still weak
By CHRISTOPHER S. RUGABER, Associated Press
Unemployment rates rose in July in more than half the states for the second straight month, evidence that job growth remains weak nationwide.
http://jlne.ws/mVdOJU
Exchanges, Clearing Houses & MTFs
LCH.Clearnet to revalue JPY trades in SwapClear using OIS
Press Release
LCH.Clearnet Ltd’s (LCH.Clearnet) market-leading interest rate swap (IRS) clearing service SwapClear is to begin using the overnight index swap (OIS) curve to discount Japanese Yen IRS trades from October 2011. The total outstanding notional value of IRS denominated in JPY within SwapClear is currently ¥ 1417 trillion, comprising over 12% of the total SwapClear portfolio by value.
http://jlne.ws/pLB7LX
Eurex Clearing launches the first major element of its new Client Asset Protection Services
Press Release
Eurex Clearing, Europe’s leading clearinghouse, announced the launch of its “Individual Clearing Model”, the first major element of a new suite of industry leading client segregation services. The new service is the first segregation solution offered by a clearing house enabling full legal and operational segregation of all assets (positions and margin collateral) for its non-clearing members (clients with trading admission) at the clearing house level. The new model allows for collateral and positions to be
transferred immediately in the event of a clearing member default, thus clients are protected and enabled to continue their trading activities.
http://jlne.ws/r0s5Ru
Free IR services from the NYSE get go-ahead
Inside Investor Relations | Business Insider
Flying in the face of protest, the SEC has approved a controversial new NYSE rule giving issuers free IR services. Service providers outside of the exchange’s coterie of partners bitterly opposed the change, saying it would squash competition and stifle innovation.
http://jlne.ws/picXL8
Firms & Banks
Quantitative Brokers Launches The Roll Tracker for US Treasury Futures Roll
Press Release
New York, NY, August 25, 2011-- Quantitative Brokers today launched The Roll Tracker, a free, web-based tool that provides real-time forecasts of the CME –traded US Treasury futures roll. The Roll Tracker, available via the company website, calculates the projected shift of open interest for the current roll cycle based on intraday observations of traded volume for each calendar spread contract. It is updated every minute and also displays the historical shifts in open interest of previous rolls, dating back to March 2009. The Roll Tracker is available for the CME 2-, 5-, and 10-year US Treasury Note, the 30-year US Treasury Bond, and the Ultra T-Bond futures.
http://jlne.ws/nrdaeg
Goldman Sachs Drops on News Blankfein Hired Defense Lawyer
By Avi Salzman, Barron's
Goldman Sachs (GS) CEO Lloyd Blankfein has hired a high-profile defense attorney, Reuters reported shortly before the market closed on Monday, sending the shares down sharply. Blankfein is not facing any civil or criminal charges, but various government agencies, including the Justice Department, are inquiring into the role Goldman Sachs played during the mortgage meltdown.
http://jlne.ws/pYHVZ6
Goldman, Citi to Offer Mortgage-Backed Securities in September
Forbes
Goldman Sachs (GS) and Citigroup (C) are planning to market bonds backed by commercial mortgages next month, according to a report by Bloomberg News.
http://jlne.ws/oL5AEO
Citigroup Safer Investment Than BofA: Schorr
Bloomberg
Citigroup Inc. (C) , the third-biggest U.S. bank, is a safer investment than Bank of America Corp. (BAC) and has more growth potential in emerging markets, according to Glenn Schorr, an analyst with Nomura Holdings Inc.
http://jlne.ws/q26ztx
Citi Announces Appointment of Christy York as Managing Director and Head of Capital Introduction for Europe, Middle ...
Business Wire
LONDON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Citi today announced that Christy York has been appointed Managing Director and Head of Capital Introduction for its Prime Finance business in the Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) region. Mr. York will report to Paul Harvey, Prime Finance Head of Sales and Capital Introduction in EMEA, and to Chris Greer, Global Head of Capital Introductions, on a global level. Mr ...
http://jlne.ws/otwcrV
RBS Boss Tells BBC They Face 'Head Winds' After Reporting £1.4 Billion Loss
PRWeb
According to Belmont Thornton, the Royal Bank of Scotland has announced after-tax losses of £1.4 billion for the first half of 2011. The announcement represents further bad news for the lender, who is 84% owned by UK taxpayers, following losses of £1.2 billion in 2010.
http://jlne.ws/pVVrsL
WaMu’s $7 Billion Bankruptcy Nears Finish Line
By Peg Brickley of Dow Jones Daily Bankruptcy Review
A bankruptcy judge indicated Wednesday that creditors may not have to wait long to find out whether she will confirm Washington Mutual Inc.’s $7 billion Chapter 11 plan.
http://jlne.ws/nWuAfr
BNY Mellon Clearing Joins CME Group for OTC Clearing
PR Newswire
NEW YORK, Aug. 23, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- BNY Mellon Clearing, LLC announced today that it has joined CME Group as a clearing member firm in order to clear over-the-counter interest rate swaps on behalf of its institutional clients. As a result of recent regulatory changes, it is...
http://jlne.ws/rfP9RM
SocGen CEO Oudea struggles to banish Kerviel demons
Reuters via Yahoo! News
Societe Generale boss Frederic Oudea is having to work harder to keep his promise of a new dawn after the bank's devastating trading scandal in 2008.
http://jlne.ws/oeNLxX
UBS Plans to Cut About 3,500 Jobs to Save Costs
By Elena Logutenkova, Bloomberg
UBS AG (UBSN), Switzerland’s biggest bank, will eliminate about 3,500 jobs, or 5.3 percent of its workforce, as stricter capital requirements and a slowdown in client trading reduce earnings.
http://jlne.ws/qPberW
Deutsche Bank Hired 80% Of Their Analyst Interns This Year
Business Insider
Here's a sign that Wall Street is looking for a younger, cheaper generation now that it's forced to lay off staff amid low economic outlooks and a stricter regulatory
environment.
http://jlne.ws/qFeI3F
HSBC eyes sale of Canadian brokerage
Globe and Mail
Banking giant HSBC Holdings PLC (HBC-N41.76-0.36-0.85%) is fielding offers for part of its Canadian unit, signalling that its massive worldwide restructuring is unlikely to leave its operation here untouched.
http://jlne.ws/pvi4s8
Global News
MPC member Martin Weale says no need for more QE
BBC
The UK economy does not need any more stimulus from the policy of quantitative easing at present, a member of the Bank of England's rate setting body has said.
http://jlne.ws/pij378
Tax deal with Swiss banks agreed by UK authorities
BBC News
The Swiss government has agreed to tax money held by UK citizens in Swiss bank accounts for the first time, while still hiding their identity.
http://jlne.ws/nG8v23
British Bankers’ Association Warns Of The Real Cost Of Regulatory Change
A chorus of concerned bankers and business people is now warning about the consequences to economic growth of further uncosted regulatory change, the British
Bankers’ Association warns.
http://jlne.ws/p0qY59
Belgium adds to call for euro bonds, bigger bailout
Reuters
Pressure on Germany and France to take radical action on the euro zone debt crisis mounted on Friday, as financial markets sagged further and Belgium added its support to calls for the region to issue debt jointly.
http://jlne.ws/qxCUcz
Greece growth to be worse than thought
FT.com
http://jlne.ws/oxhVJw
Japan Urges G-7 Coordination on Markets
Toru Fujioka and Kate Anderson Brower, Bloomberg
Japan called on Group of Seven nations to work closely to counter market turmoil and Asian officials sought to calm investors as stocks slumped on concern the U.S. recovery is faltering. The G-7 needs “very close cooperation in coming weeks,” Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said in Tokyo, where the Topix index fell to a two-year low. Hong Kong financial official K.C. Chan urged investors to “stay calm” and not be “spooked by the market,” as the Hang Seng Index slumped 3.1 percent. In Beijing, Vice President Xi Jinping said his nation will avoid an economic hard landing.
http://jlne.ws/oWFi95
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