Government Bond Markets Global Outlook, Fisher Capital Management Seoul: Any Existing Exposure To Bonds Should Be Further Reduced In Favor Of US & Euro Equities

Press Release

Government Bond Markets Global Outlook Fisher Capital Management Seoul

– Conditions in the government bond markets have remained very difficult over the past month, and there have been further falls in some of the minor markets, especially in the euro-zone, because of continuing fears about sovereign debt defaults. The agreement reached by the member countries of the euro-zone to combine with the IMF to provide any necessary support to enable Greece to refinance its maturing debts and avoid a default has had a poor response in the markets; but at least Greece has been able to make further bond issues; and the gilt edged market has coped fairly well so far with a disappointing Budget statement that has left any real attempt to resolve the serious UK debt problems until after the general election. But the sudden weakness in the world bond markets after a series of disappointing auctions has once again increased the tensions.

Our position remains unchanged; any existing exposure to bonds should be further reduced in favor of US & Euro equities.

The global economic recovery is developing slowly, and so short-term interest rates are likely to remain at low levels for a considerable period. It is also possible that the “fudged” agreement amongst member countries of the euro-zone will provide an opportunity for the introduction of the necessary austerity measures; and that a new government will finally begin to address the debt problems in the UK. But the risks in the situation are still increasing, sovereign debt defaults may still occur, and the single currency system in the euro-zone may not be sustainable in its present form. Higher bond yields therefore appear unavoidable; prospects for all the bond markets are unattractive.

Developments in the bond market over the past month have clearly illustrated the need for caution. The US economy continues to recover. The Fed has left short term interest rates unchanged, and has indicated that they will remain “at exceptionally low levels for an extended period.”This tended to enhance the “safe haven” status of the US equity market for most of the past month, as conditions continued to deteriorate in other bond markets.